The rep number shown at the top of the page is a denormalized number. It is not always accurate; it may or may not reflect certain changes to your rep such as deleted questions and answers. The correct rep value is the one shown at the bottom of your /reputation page.
As to the difference in rep for those two numbers you've shown, I can only guess that the bottom number is probably the accurate one, but you can check your /reputation page to see which number is correct. The /reputation page is the gold standard; it shows the actual, true rep you've earned.
Automatic recalcs don't happen that often. When they do, it will have the same effect as you pushing the recalc button on the /reputation page; it will reset all of the denormalized numbers to their correct values. If you're looking to get a badge, I would hold off on recalcing until you've earned the badge.