Taking Biology as an example, Area 51 describes:
Every site needs a solid group of core users to assist in moderating the site. We recommend:
- 150 users with 200+ rep (on pace for 83 users at 90 days)
- 10 users with 2,000+ rep (on pace for 2 users at 90 days)
- 5 users with 3,000+ rep (on pace for 0 users at 90 days)
At the current time, there are
- 70 users with 200 rep or more
- 2 users with 2000 rep or more
See Biology User List (36 per page)
So assuming that the projected extra thirteen 200 rep users are the next thirteen closest, the Area 51 projections say that the thirteenth user is expected get 44 reputation points, that is, 22% more than they have currently in the next 17 days.
Yet this doesn't seem to be the same logic as applied to the next category. Four users are within 170 reputation points (8.5% more) and some are only 22 reputation points (1.1%) away from crossing the threshold. Surely they are more likely to do this in the next seventeen days than the 200 reputation points users (I am sure their reputation per day is higher too) so why don't these users show up in the on pace stats?
Could the projections be broken for the middle category?
Similarly for the third category, a user is 66 reputation points (2.2%) away from the 3000 mark yet doesn't show up in that bracket. Surely they should be doing at this point?
I also think it's unlikely to be a caching problem as some of the 2k users haven't gained reputation points over the last couple of days but are still within striking distance.