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Now that our Jon Skeet contest is over. I'd like to try our hand again but this time with Marc Gravell. When do you think he'll surpass the 100,000 mark?

Current Score

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closed as too localized by Adam Lear Aug 5 '12 at 20:19

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To confirm, the final date was the 19th. – Marc Gravell Dec 19 '09 at 21:27
big congrats to you Marc – Nathan Koop Dec 20 '09 at 19:19
up vote 4 down vote accepted

December 19, 2009

I know... I'm a big cheater :p

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pah! Just for that I'm tempted to suspend my own account, so I don't gain any rep tomorrow! – Marc Gravell Dec 18 '09 at 20:44
We double-dog-dare you. – Even Mien Dec 18 '09 at 20:48
congrats to Even Mien for answering correctly... even if he answered it the day the Marc crossed the finish line. – Nathan Koop Dec 20 '09 at 19:19

Well, I'm ~81k now, after roughly a year (less a few days) - so add ~3 months. I'll say Dec 15th.

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Wow. It's mildly humiliating to those of us that have been around since beta that neither you nor Jon are Yearlings yet. I doff my top hat to both of you. – Bill the Lizard Sep 25 '09 at 19:09
I call shenanigans! Can't bet on yourself. – devinb Sep 25 '09 at 19:38
I can too ;-p Plus: if I get there too early I can always suspend myself so I don't go over-rep ahead of time. I'm not sure that I will though... – Marc Gravell Sep 25 '09 at 22:32
@Bill the Lizard: Are you saying that Jon Skeet joined after me? – Ikke Sep 25 '09 at 22:55
@Ikke: Jon joined SO four days after you (he gets his Yearling badge tomorrow). Don't feel bad, though. I had a forty-day head start on Jon, and he passed me like I was standing still. – Bill the Lizard Sep 26 '09 at 1:05
Right now, looks like it'll be Dec 19th. – Nathan Koop Dec 16 '09 at 20:50
Well, 4 days in a 3 month guess isn't too terrible... – Marc Gravell Dec 18 '09 at 13:41
I was just going to add "good guess", but you beat me to it ;) – ChrisF Dec 18 '09 at 22:58
@Marc: Are you this good at estimating when you'll finish a project? ;-) – Dexter Apr 27 '10 at 4:27
@Dexter - I'll let you know when one is "finished". 11 years into pro development, and the only way I've found to fully "finish" a project is to change jobs. – Marc Gravell Jun 20 '10 at 20:27

In six to eight weeks

Or, as a real entry into the contest, Dec 23.

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you forgot the "to eight" part... – tvanfosson Sep 25 '09 at 18:00
Hmmm... ~445/day - sounds like a lot of fun ;-p – Marc Gravell Sep 25 '09 at 18:04
@tvanfosson: touche – squillman Sep 25 '09 at 18:04
@Marc: c'mon, man of yer caliber? :) – squillman Sep 25 '09 at 18:05
@Squillman, you could still get it right if you furiously downvote Mark for the next couple of days ;-) – Nathan Koop Dec 18 '09 at 20:42
Hey! Play fair! Where's that "delete user" button... – Marc Gravell Dec 18 '09 at 20:45
Haha, let's see. 30 votes at 2/vote x 5 days = 300 points, if I do it spaced out enough to trick the auto rep fixer. Hmmm. Nah :) – squillman Dec 18 '09 at 21:23

My guess is Dec 12th, 2009

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The progression of his reputation is exponential, so I'll guess earlier. I'll say November 2nd.

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I don't see any evidence for that... slightly sub-linear at the moment, if anything. – Marc Gravell Sep 28 '09 at 5:10
Perhaps it is because of the reputation cap. – Jader Dias Sep 28 '09 at 13:45
Is there a consolation prize for the first loser? – Ether Nov 18 '09 at 0:15

November 29, 2009

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December 5th, 2pm UTC.

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You could be a bit more specific perhaps? – Marc Gravell Sep 28 '09 at 5:15
Looks like I missed it by a hair. Currently he's at 96,785... – Ether Dec 5 '09 at 2:18

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