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Now that our Jon Skeet contest is over. I'd like to try our hand again but this time with Marc Gravell. When do you think he'll surpass the 100,000 mark?

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To confirm, the final date was the 19th. –  Marc Gravell Dec 19 '09 at 21:27
    
big congrats to you Marc –  Nathan Koop Dec 20 '09 at 19:19
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7 Answers 7

up vote 4 down vote accepted

December 19, 2009

I know... I'm a big cheater :p

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pah! Just for that I'm tempted to suspend my own account, so I don't gain any rep tomorrow! –  Marc Gravell Dec 18 '09 at 20:44
    
We double-dog-dare you. –  Even Mien Dec 18 '09 at 20:48
    
congrats to Even Mien for answering correctly... even if he answered it the day the Marc crossed the finish line. –  Nathan Koop Dec 20 '09 at 19:19
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Well, I'm ~81k now, after roughly a year (less a few days) - so add ~3 months. I'll say Dec 15th.

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Wow. It's mildly humiliating to those of us that have been around since beta that neither you nor Jon are Yearlings yet. I doff my top hat to both of you. –  Bill the Lizard Sep 25 '09 at 19:09
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I call shenanigans! Can't bet on yourself. –  devinb Sep 25 '09 at 19:38
    
I can too ;-p Plus: if I get there too early I can always suspend myself so I don't go over-rep ahead of time. I'm not sure that I will though... –  Marc Gravell Sep 25 '09 at 22:32
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@Bill the Lizard: Are you saying that Jon Skeet joined after me? –  Ikke Sep 25 '09 at 22:55
    
@Ikke: Jon joined SO four days after you (he gets his Yearling badge tomorrow). Don't feel bad, though. I had a forty-day head start on Jon, and he passed me like I was standing still. –  Bill the Lizard Sep 26 '09 at 1:05
    
Right now, looks like it'll be Dec 19th. –  Nathan Koop Dec 16 '09 at 20:50
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Well, 4 days in a 3 month guess isn't too terrible... –  Marc Gravell Dec 18 '09 at 13:41
    
I was just going to add "good guess", but you beat me to it ;) –  ChrisF Dec 18 '09 at 22:58
    
@Marc: Are you this good at estimating when you'll finish a project? ;-) –  Dexter Apr 27 '10 at 4:27
    
@Dexter - I'll let you know when one is "finished". 11 years into pro development, and the only way I've found to fully "finish" a project is to change jobs. –  Marc Gravell Jun 20 '10 at 20:27
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In six to eight weeks

Or, as a real entry into the contest, Dec 23.

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you forgot the "to eight" part... –  tvanfosson Sep 25 '09 at 18:00
    
Hmmm... ~445/day - sounds like a lot of fun ;-p –  Marc Gravell Sep 25 '09 at 18:04
    
@tvanfosson: touche –  squillman Sep 25 '09 at 18:04
    
@Marc: c'mon, man of yer caliber? :) –  squillman Sep 25 '09 at 18:05
    
@Squillman, you could still get it right if you furiously downvote Mark for the next couple of days ;-) –  Nathan Koop Dec 18 '09 at 20:42
    
Hey! Play fair! Where's that "delete user" button... –  Marc Gravell Dec 18 '09 at 20:45
    
Haha, let's see. 30 votes at 2/vote x 5 days = 300 points, if I do it spaced out enough to trick the auto rep fixer. Hmmm. Nah :) –  squillman Dec 18 '09 at 21:23
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My guess is Dec 12th, 2009

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The progression of his reputation is exponential, so I'll guess earlier. I'll say November 2nd.

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I don't see any evidence for that... slightly sub-linear at the moment, if anything. –  Marc Gravell Sep 28 '09 at 5:10
    
Perhaps it is because of the reputation cap. –  Jader Dias Sep 28 '09 at 13:45
    
Is there a consolation prize for the first loser? –  Ether Nov 18 '09 at 0:15
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November 29, 2009

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December 5th, 2pm UTC.

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You could be a bit more specific perhaps? –  Marc Gravell Sep 28 '09 at 5:15
    
Looks like I missed it by a hair. Currently he's at 96,785... –  Ether Dec 5 '09 at 2:18
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