What is meta? ×
Meta Stack Exchange is where users like you discuss bugs, features, and support issues that affect the software powering all 134 Stack Exchange communities.

Jon Skeet has broken the 100,000 barrier!

Though it's hard to pinpoint the exact time, this post was created very shortly afterwards, with a post date of 2009-09-24 01:39:44Z. The winner is silky, who called September 24!


This would be fun. There could be a programming element to this, since some data mining might be able to help you observe patterns to help enrich your chances of winning. Jeff would, of course, be able to provide some SO swag to the lucky winner, even if it's just a fun badge.


So when do you think that Jon Skeet will eclipse 100k?


Current Score

share|improve this question

closed as too localized by Sathya, ChrisF, Gilles, Lorem Ipsum, random Aug 27 '11 at 16:41

This question is unlikely to help any future visitors; it is only relevant to a small geographic area, a specific moment in time, or an extraordinarily narrow situation that is not generally applicable to the worldwide audience of the internet. For help making this question more broadly applicable, visit the help center.If this question can be reworded to fit the rules in the help center, please edit the question.

5  
Tomorrow! * modifies SO database * –  Hilarious Comedy Pesto Jul 10 '09 at 15:14
38  
Where do people come up with this stuff anyway? He puts his pants on in the morning just like all of us. One leg at at time. The only difference is that he does it while answering questions on SO. –  jjnguy Jul 10 '09 at 15:53
1  
Wrong, he puts his pants on both legs at the same time, while answering questions on StackOverflow. –  Brad Gilbert Jul 10 '09 at 16:15
    
I'm not (necessarily) attributing godlike qualities to Jon Skeet. (Although the Jon Skeet Facts post on SO is pretty darn funny... the "can recite pi... backwards" one makes me laugh every time.) I just think such a contest would be fun. –  Chris Farmer Jul 10 '09 at 16:26
19  
Who says I wear anything? Didn't you know about "naked Friday"? –  Jon Skeet Jul 10 '09 at 16:42
7  
"I'm not (necessarily) attributing godlike qualities to Jon Skeet." By Skeet! Blasphemer!! –  TheTXI Jul 10 '09 at 16:56
6  
I believe in the easter egg question, you posted a picture of yourself working in a bathrobe. Perhaps the difference between Jon Skeet and the rest of us IS rooted in pants. –  devinb Jul 10 '09 at 17:55
3  
... or lack thereof. –  Brad Gilbert Aug 14 '09 at 18:58
    
I would have preffered to use one of these images meta.stackexchange.com/questions/9482/… but there isn't an auto-updating version on the web ... yet. –  Brad Gilbert Aug 14 '09 at 19:00
    
Any particular reason why you'd rather use the other ones Brad? –  Steven Robbins Sep 9 '09 at 13:49
    
I only wanted to show the current rep, not everything. I would have put on the advanced light, version.alpha.wolfmicrosystems.com/flair/advanced/StackOverflow.png –  Brad Gilbert Sep 12 '09 at 17:28
    
The version I did is fully, and easily, customisable. It won't be "hosted" if you customise it, but I don't see what the other one offers that the original doesn't. –  Steven Robbins Sep 20 '09 at 9:43
    
No No, he's obviously scripted the putting on of the pants into his nightly build process, so that he can worry about less trvial things. –  Neil N Sep 22 '09 at 19:06
    
So who's going to start the jon skeet 200k pool? –  Kip Sep 24 '09 at 14:17
    
So Chris, are you going to accept silky's correct answer? –  Jon Skeet Sep 25 '09 at 19:38

20 Answers 20

up vote 13 down vote accepted

24th of September.

share|improve this answer
1  
24th would be pretty hard at this stage. With a really good weekend it's possible, but tricky. 25th or 26th is more likely now. –  Jon Skeet Sep 18 '09 at 6:29
    
Actually, it may not be too unreasonable. At the end of September 17th I had 2341 left to get. Let's assume 230 per day over the coming weekend. That leaves 1881 over today (18th) and next week. To get there on the 24th would mean averaging 376.2 per day. This week has been a good week so far - an average of 387. So if I have a similarly good week next week - or a really good weekend - I could get there. I'm going out on Saturday evening though... –  Jon Skeet Sep 18 '09 at 6:57
    
You presence on SO is only tangentially related to the amount of rep you earn. –  please delete me Sep 19 '09 at 6:30
    
I had a very good day on Friday (463) and a pretty reasonable weekend. It's now looking like Thursday (24th) is very likely. Wednesday is unrealistically optimistic; I'll almost certainly hit before the end of Friday. –  Jon Skeet Sep 21 '09 at 8:49
    
Another probably unconsidered aspect is that as you verge closer, people will want to get you over the line, so you'll hit the 200 barrier earlier. I'm feeling quite good. I await my prize in advance. –  please delete me Sep 21 '09 at 9:38
    
I'm not sure there are that many people who care :) –  Jon Skeet Sep 21 '09 at 13:09
3  
You'd be surprised (probably not though) at the level of obsession some people have. –  please delete me Sep 21 '09 at 13:51
    
I called it too soon. You are totally going to hit it earlier I think. Damn. Maybe not. But almost certainly. –  please delete me Sep 21 '09 at 23:23
    
No, I'd have to average nearly 500 per day for today and tomorrow to do it before Thursday... and I've never hit 500 yet without bounty. (463 on Friday... I had high hopes.) I was at 99014 at the start of today, which means Thursday is almost certainly the day: 500 per day is too much to achieve, but 330 per day is relatively straightforward. –  Jon Skeet Sep 22 '09 at 6:21
    
Yeah, you're right, I lost my head for a bit; for some reason I thought the 24th meant friday; but of course it's thursday, and most definitely that will be the day. –  please delete me Sep 23 '09 at 4:59
7  
Congrats on guessing the right day (whether or not you meant to!) :-) –  Kyle Cronin Sep 24 '09 at 2:02
    
wooo. i now eagerly await SO to be showered in pictures of jon, in celebration. –  please delete me Sep 24 '09 at 2:21

Friday afternoon has hit Meta SO.

Friday Afternoon -

  1. The time period in which an uncharacteristically large set of non-programming-related fun questions are posted on StackOverflow and related websites. It is assumed that this is the most popular time period due to the urge for users to want to "wind down" from a hard week of attempting to treat StackOverflow like serious business.

  2. The time period in which most SO humor trolls wake up and begin feeding.

share|improve this answer
1  
Hey, it's still morning here! I bail out early! –  Chris Farmer Jul 10 '09 at 15:10
1  
It's 5 o'clock somewhere. –  TheTXI Jul 10 '09 at 15:10
    
@TheTXI: Actually, it's like 5:11 somewhere. –  Hilarious Comedy Pesto Jul 10 '09 at 15:11
5  
This is only the second Meta Friday. I hope this becomes a tradition. We can call it: Don't do anything at work on Friday day! –  jjnguy Jul 10 '09 at 15:33
12  
You're assuming we do anything at work on any other day. –  TheTXI Jul 10 '09 at 15:35
2  
@jinguy: ...or "Friday". –  Bill the Lizard Jul 10 '09 at 15:35
    
@jingury Hey I was already participating with out knowing it! Awesome. –  Eric Koslow Jul 10 '09 at 15:36
    
:) Now I'm gonna have to start working longer the rest of teh week to make up for this holiday. –  jjnguy Jul 10 '09 at 15:49

I don't think he'll EVER hit 100,000. Something tells me there's a bug in the system that is going to replicate the old arcade days. Jon will hit 99,999 and then forever be stuck there, or he'll go back to 1 and get the "Awesomeness" badge that repeats every time you get to 100,000 rep, that badge will be platinum.

Maybe that should be a feature request? Sorry...Friday has arrived. 8^D

share|improve this answer
1  
ummmm... do you mean he will be stuck at 99,999? one too many 9s there. ;) –  Eric Koslow Jul 10 '09 at 15:29
    
DOH! Yeah...cofffee is addding toooo many jittersss this morning. 8^D –  Dillie-O Jul 10 '09 at 15:33
    
Done...guess the edits are important here too... –  Dillie-O Jul 10 '09 at 16:16
    
There might be a Stack Overflow kill screen in a couple minutes... there's a potential Stack Overflow kill screen coming up if anyone wants to see it. –  Miles Sep 24 '09 at 9:39

The site should get a special skin for the day.

share|improve this answer
5  
Maybe the stackoverflow logo should be a (Google like) Jon Skeet doodle –  Gishu Sep 22 '09 at 16:03

Do I get to guess as well, or is there a sneaking suspicion that I may be able to influence it? ;)

I'd love to say "6-8 weeks" but I think it'll be a little longer than that... unless people feel like asking big bounty questions about time zones ;)

EDIT: I've recently been tracking what it'll take for me to get there before my one year anniversary (September 26th). At the moment I need a little shy of 300 a day, which is fairly easily achievable. Weekends are generally a pain (it's hard to get 300 on a weekend day) but if I only assume 200 for the remaining 4 weekend days before the 26th, I still only have to get 324 per day. That's doable.

share|improve this answer
    
Just remember to come back to this thread when you do :) –  Eric Koslow Jul 10 '09 at 15:17
11  
Even if you stop answering question now, you'll probably still coast to 100K by year's end. –  Bill the Lizard Jul 10 '09 at 15:20
    
I don't think you'd even be able to resist answering enough to influence. It'll be two days before your guess, you'll be at 99800 and you'll be struggling not to answer any more questions. –  Hilarious Comedy Pesto Jul 10 '09 at 15:21
    
I could delete all my "big rep" answers though ;) –  Jon Skeet Jul 10 '09 at 15:24
    
I believe it taking longer might still be in the spirit of Jeff's 6-8 weeks. –  Timothy Carter Jul 10 '09 at 15:34
    
I'd say 12 weeks on the inside and 16 on the outside. –  toast Jul 10 '09 at 15:52
    
But will you now slow down to hit the 26th, just to win this? –  Marc Gravell Sep 22 '09 at 15:57
3  
And then Jon Skeet said... "That's doable" :) –  Gishu Sep 22 '09 at 16:05
    
@Marc: Nah. I'm thinking of having a "rep holiday" when I've hit 100K though: all new posts will be CW until Monday morning :) –  Jon Skeet Sep 22 '09 at 16:31
    
Look like you'll probably beat your anniversary by 2 days. –  gnostradamus Sep 22 '09 at 19:19
    
Yup. See my running commentary in response to silky's answer :) –  Jon Skeet Sep 22 '09 at 19:27
    
Permission to do a rep recalc? Just to make sure everything is beyond contestation? –  Marc Gravell Sep 22 '09 at 20:51
    
You want a rep holiday? Just to avoid that unsightly rep from old questions I could put your account in the red for the weekend? (cough) –  Marc Gravell Sep 22 '09 at 20:52
    
@Marc: I was going to suggest a rep calc sometime tomorrow - but now would be fine :) –  Jon Skeet Sep 22 '09 at 22:04
5  
You lost 3 points! Your scheme of domination is foiled! mwahaahahhaha –  Marc Gravell Sep 22 '09 at 22:06

Well if you look at his rep graph it seems to be almost a liner graph starting at 2008/09/27.

Today is 2009/07/10, and he has a rep of 77,307. It has been 286 days since he started. Some how he has been getting 270.3 points adverge a day. So by this math he should reach 100K at.... 2009/10/2 Around 7am.

EDIT: Woops, I was never good with dates. I corrected my answer to be more accurate.

share|improve this answer
2  
for someone like Skeet it's almost impossible for it -not- to be a linear graph due to the artificial limit set by the system of 200 rep per day (not including bonuses and accepted answers and bounties). –  TheTXI Jul 10 '09 at 15:16
    
I think you mean 9 months and 17 days - 10 months after September 27th is July 27th. –  Jon Skeet Jul 10 '09 at 15:17
    
(i.e. it's around 286 days.) –  Jon Skeet Jul 10 '09 at 15:19
    
Thanks for that! –  Eric Koslow Jul 10 '09 at 15:27
    
Wait: sept 27 was your join date? Maybe I should bump mine up a day so that I have you reaching 100K a year to the day from when you started. –  Joel Coehoorn Jul 10 '09 at 15:37
    
That's funny, when I read the question I did a quick back of the napkin calculation using his current rep and the rep limit then adjusted the estimate for things like bounties and answered questions and got 12 - 16 weeks which would be the week of 2009/10/2 –  toast Jul 10 '09 at 15:57
    
But all in all, he should definitely have it before Halloween. –  toast Jul 10 '09 at 15:58

Does the winner get all of Jon Skeet's rep, too?

share|improve this answer

At his current velocity, it seems inevitable that Jon will hit 100k reputation before the first Dev Days event in Boston on October 7. 32 days remain, and he has less than 6400 rep to go. This means all he has to do is hit the cap each day, and we all know that's a given.

Will something happen when he reaches 100k? Something wonderful?

Is this all ordained by prophecy? Will Dev Days actually be ... a pilgrimage?

share|improve this answer

I've done some calculations, and I am predicting 1000 UTC on 27 September, 2009. This is three hours later than Eric Koslow's prediction.

Jon Skeet Reputation Trend alt text

Jon Skeet Reputation Prediction alt text

share|improve this answer
    
I'm still hoping for September 26th, which I believe is feasible so long as next weekend isn't too bad. It's very non-linear - at the moment I think I'm averaging ~350 per day during the week, but weekends vary between 200 and 300. –  Jon Skeet Sep 15 '09 at 9:55
    
Wow...looks like you'll pass the 100k mark sooner than we both thought...the 24th, probably! Pace yourself, Jon.... –  Stu Thompson Sep 22 '09 at 19:46

What's the prize for asking the question that gives the 100k?

share|improve this answer

2009-10-13

this ticket is done

share|improve this answer
    
Hands look like they need a manicure there. –  random Sep 24 '09 at 8:05

From the officially accepted Auto-Characterization of His Skeetness:

Jon Skeet can make 1 == 3 anyway, so it makes no difference.

In other words: Jon Skeet's rep doesn't reach 100,000. Jon Skeet redefines 100,000.

share|improve this answer
13  
His rep is already 100,000, it's just taking its time to let us all know that. –  XMLbog Jul 10 '09 at 15:25
1  
Relativity of reputation speed... –  Steve Schnepp Aug 3 '09 at 7:07

Never. You can get as close as you want but never reach it.

No, wait...

share|improve this answer

I'll take the stroke of midnight on Halloween.

share|improve this answer
    
That would be annoying. I'd like to be on 100K before the DevDay in London (October 28th) –  Jon Skeet Jul 10 '09 at 15:21
    
@Jon: You'll probably make that. I used a low average daily gain (low for you) then rounded up my answer a few days to a nice milestone date. :) –  Bill the Lizard Jul 10 '09 at 15:27
    
For some reason this made me think of Harry Potter -- maybe it's all the ads I'm seeing on the tube. Wait a minute... Jon, you aren't using magic to enhance your rep, are you? –  tvanfosson Jul 10 '09 at 15:37

10/9/2009 12:00:00 PM UTC

To clarify, that's October 9; I was mimicking the date-time format used in SO tool tips.

share|improve this answer
    
Is that Sepember 10 or October 9? –  XMLbog Jul 10 '09 at 15:15
    
October 9, 2009 –  Timothy Carter Jul 10 '09 at 15:16
5  
MIDDLE ENDIAN! Shame on you! –  XMLbog Jul 10 '09 at 15:20
1  
I was just using the same format as the tool tips on SO. –  Timothy Carter Jul 10 '09 at 15:20
6  
Just because Jeff @wood does it wrong doesn't mean you should too. If Jeff coded himself off a bridge, would you follow? –  XMLbog Jul 10 '09 at 15:23
15  
I would, but it might take me 6-8 weeks. –  Timothy Carter Jul 10 '09 at 15:26
1  
Well played, yshuditelu. Well played. –  XMLbog Jul 10 '09 at 15:29
    
Excellent comment thread!! Thanks for the laughs. –  jjnguy Jul 10 '09 at 15:29

In 10/01/09 he will get 100,109.

So 100,000 should be either 10/01/09 or 09/30/09.

share|improve this answer

Should not be as easy as take his reputation and put it on a function?

It is almost linear if that makes it easier....

alt text

share|improve this answer
1  
Note there's a slight, barely noticeable, upward bend to the line. So if you just take his daily average since his join date you're estimate will be too low. Going with the average from just the last 60 days is a better estimate. –  Joel Coehoorn Sep 22 '09 at 15:08

Put me down for Sept. 28. I think he'll actually do it a little faster, but that's my daughter's birthday.

While I'm at it, I'll also claim Sept. 27, which is Jon's 1 yr anniversary at SO.

Maybe I should also check the data dump and do some extrapolation based on how much he's earned per day over just the past 60 days.

share|improve this answer
    
Looks like he's on pace for this :) -- ((100000-97253)/221)+16 = 28 –  Joel Coehoorn Sep 16 '09 at 16:40
    
It's gonna be close, though, and depends some on where the weekends fall. –  Joel Coehoorn Sep 16 '09 at 16:40

Wow: among those who answered when this was asked back in July, of course Jon Skeet has it the closest (with myself a close 2nd).

share|improve this answer

Jon should come up with a nearly impossible programming question, and give it a bounty of 100k. That could be epic

Could at least act as good test on the bounty system. Remember back in the early days, 10k+ rep users threw off the formatting of the site.

share|improve this answer
    
The highest bounty you can set is 250 ( I think ). –  Brad Gilbert Sep 22 '09 at 19:14
3  
550. And only 500 of it comes from your rep. –  mmyers Sep 22 '09 at 19:48

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged .