How is the commit percent decided for Area 51? I know it is based on rep, but how exactly does it work?
My answer here:
With that caveat, the formula we use right now works like this: We give each user a "score" based on how likely we think they are to contribute to the site. It's a bit kludgey right now because we don't have a whole lot of data. The one piece of data we have that tells us a lot and is hard to game is a user's reputation on the existing sites.
Here's the formula we have right now. It's almost certainly wrong and we'll be tweaking it as we go:
where SUM is over each site a user has an account on.
To get a feel for it:
The way to read this is that we consider a user with 10000 reputation to be almost 3x as likely to contribute as a user with no reputation.
We've tweaked the formula a few times since this was originally posted, based on the data from the first site betas. I've corrected the formula above to be the very latest. In general, we've tweaked the value of high-rep users downwards since they don't seem to be that much more likely to contribute, and given brand new users a bit of a boost as well.
The final commitment percentage of a proposal is equal to the MINIMUM of these three numbers:
Put another way, every proposal that launches must satisfy these three criteria:
We've added a decay factor to commitment votes on Area 51. This applies only to the Commitment Score portion. Basically, the older a vote is, the more it decays. This is very gradual: something like 10% over 6 months. If a user is very committed, they can "renew" their vote by visiting the proposal while logged in.
The following Python 3.x script can be used to compute the commitment percent based on the new formula. The scores of the 3 criterion will be emitted in the end, showing what kind of users is needed to improve the percentage.
From a few proposals I have tested on, it turns out the strictest criteria is "100 committers with at least 200 rep on a single site".
The WordPress Answers proposal is one exception. A lot of people came over from the wp-hackers list on WordPress.org when I announced it, and as such, only have 51 rep. The comments show great activity potential, but the rep shows almost none. This is, of course, the ultimate goal, to bring in outsiders.
Same here for the GIS website. This kinda dissapoints me, but I'm sure the GIS website will be created at some point. Or not?
Almost all users who followed it, already commited, so I'm not sure if this will grow higher.
It's not (just) the total reps.
Probably the percentage is a mixture of people count (41 for Gaming, 26 for Apocalyptic Defense) and total rep.
Edit: Based on @David's answer, I've calculated the total user score for:
so the score of 100% is
Hmm the ranges do not intersect. But it seems 2,000 is the answer.
(The scores per site of each user are extracted with Firebug with
on each page. The lists are summed, divided by 10, and the total number of committers are added to it.)