The spiffy new mod dashboard is great, but the link sometimes shows when it shouldn't. For example, see Jeff Atwood's profile on Security.SE:
After a bit of experimentation, it seems that the link only shows for non-moderators when:
The site in question has not received the new CSS updates (hence the example of Security.SE).
The user whose profile is being viewed has a diamond (hence Jeff Atwood).
When both of these conditions are satisfied, the "mod dashboard" link shows up even for regular, non-moderator users.