From Literature's Area 51 stats:

Screenshot with "on pace for ..." stats highlighted

How does the system extrapolate from the existing userbase how many users there are likely to be with at least a certain rep score in forty days' time? I can think of a few possible algorithms none of which make much sense. Has the algorithm used ever been made public?

(I've seen this [bug] report from 2012, but I don't think this is a duplicate. The old meta post has a lot of guesses at possible algorithms, but nothing is confirmed.)


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