Here's a proposal I'm excited about:


As it stands I don't really know how long it will be until the beta. How about trying to estimate this? enter image description here

Or maybe even:

enter image description here

Or maybe with a range so movements in the prediction aren't too volatile: enter image description here

It would be a lot more informative and exciting to follow and give a good estimate of how long we all have to wait!

It also acts as a target, something to come back and look at. As it stands, the # of comitters is just a figure I'm disconnected from, this more target emphasised approach will make me feel more attached to the proposal I think.


Fabian mentioned that a linear line wouldn't make much sense, especially on new proposals, so how about this new graph comes in when a certain momentum has been reached, and the line of best fit takes acceleration into account?

  • Take a look at some of the started proposal, that graph is very rarely a straight line, so a linear fit does not really make sense. – Mad Scientist Mar 7 '11 at 13:36
  • @Fabian, that's ok maybe when it's reached a certain momentum this new graph could come in? Or the line of best fit could take acceleration into account? – Tom Mar 7 '11 at 13:37
  • I like the idea (+1), but it was present without freehand circles (-1) and too many perfectly-straight lines (-1). – Matt Ball Mar 7 '11 at 18:43

There's a bit problem with your examples and your overall premise. The Y-axis to the left is the number of committers. That looks really pretty after the fact, but how many committers equals 100%? There's no way to say.

Each committer contributes a different amount to the overall progress of that chart. It's based on their Stack Exchange reputation.

Even if you could reasonably estimate the course of that line, there's no way to tell where along that line the proposal will reach 100% — hence no way to tell when the site will launch.

  • Oh right, I thought it was just 200 commiters? Does it take total rep into account? – Tom Mar 8 '11 at 9:07
  • @Tom Gullen: Correct. The "full commitment" equation takes rep into account. The last five sites went into beta after 203, 241, 242, 347, and 216 committers respectively. – Robert Cartaino Mar 8 '11 at 16:11

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