Both comments are correct. Let me clarify a little:
The data explorer queryquery in your question gives your top placement relative to all users with a non-null total score in the scala tag: you're top 4%
The data explorer queryquery in your comment gives your top placement relative to all users with a total score greater than 5 in the scala tag: you're top 11% (here your are competing only against users with a higher score)
The top % shown in your Careers profile is your placement relative to all Careers users with a linked SO account and a total score greater than 5: you're top 11%. It is the same % as the previous case, but that's just because the Careers users are rather representative of the SO users for this tag.
Careers rounds the top % to the higher multiple of 10: you can be either top 10%, top 20% or top 30% (if higher than that, it is not displayed).
So even though your real placement is 11%, it shows as top 20%.
As en encouragement, your total score in scala is 116, and the current threshold to be top 10% is 138. You're getting there ;)